As we get closer to George Osborne’s Budget Speech – only four days to go! – odds that he’ll announce pro-enterprise measures are shortening. Here’s the latest league table of entrepreneurial odds.
It’s looking increasingly like Osborne won’t make announce any major surprises on Wednesday. It’s likely we’ll get a run-through of the measures that we already know about the draft Finance Bill and an update on consultations and other work-in-progress.
As racegoers prepare themselves for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, accountants PricewaterhouseCoopers have offered odds on the runners and riders in the forthcoming Budget:
| Capital gains tax | Will we see the removal of the five per cent shareholding condition for Enterprise Investment Scheme relief | 12-1 |
| Corporation tax | Further reduction to the UK tax rate and more on the promised corporation tax reform measures. | 1-3 (fav) |
| Fuel duty | Temporary suspension of fuel duty escalator. | 2-1 |
| Reversal of VAT increase on fuel imposed on January 1. | 50-1 | |
| Green taxes | Will we hear news of a new carbon tax (climate change levy) to be paid by electricity generators on the fuel they buy? | Evens |
| Inheritance tax | Will there be a wholesale review of inheritance tax? | 25-1 |
| National insurance contributions (NICs) | Will we see a harmonisation of NICs and income tax? | 100-1 |
| May we see a consultation on the harmonisation of NICs and income tax announced | 10-1 | |
| Stamp duty | Clarification of sub-sale rules. Confirmation that residential rate goes up to five per cent on April 6, 2011. | 2-1 |
| VAT | There is little scope to change the 20 per cent rate, but might we see some zero- or lower-rated items move into the higher rate | 50-1 |
| Income tax | Will we see an announcement on the direction of travel on the 50 per cent tax rate | 5-1 |
PwC tax partner Barry Murphy says: “The government has set an agenda of consultations and advance warning of changes to this is really a Budget for odds-on favourites rather than rank outsiders. However, every Cheltenham festival throws up a welcome surprise, and the Chancellor may not be able to resist generating some good headlines.”
So, what do you think of these odds?
Picture source
