Facebook: A sure bet

Ahead of today’s annual Facebook developer conference, Paddy Power has released some novelty bets on the company.

The Irish bookmaker is now offering odds of just 1/50 that Facebook reaches the one-billion user mark. The social networking site currently has just under 800 million active users. The odds are 5/2 that the billion-user mark will be reached by Q3 2012 and 2/1 that it will be sometime after 2013.

Question marks still hang over whether or not Facebook will file for an IPO, however, and the bookmaker is quoting 1/2 that it will do so by the end of next year, and 6/4 that such a move will be further delayed. 

If Facebook does give in and float, the company could be valued somewhere between $100bn and $125bn.

Looking at the odds, it would appear that Facebook will be in the mix for some time to come – unlike many of its earlier competitors like MySpace & Bebo – but achieving its long-term goal of becoming the first trillion-dollar company is still some way off, with Paddy Power quoting 12/1.

Computer giant Apple is the favourite (6/4) with Paddy Power to become the first trillion dollar company, followed by oil giant Exxon at 5/2 and PetroChina at 3/1.

Here are the odds:

Will Facebook reach a billion active users?

1/50 – Yes
10/1 – No

When will Facebook reach a billion active users?

25/1 – Q4 2011
7/1 – Q1 2012
11/4 – Q2 2012
5/2 – Q3 2012
11/4 – Q4 201
22/1 – 2013 or later

Will Facebook become the first trillion-dollar company?

1/66 – No
12/1 – Yes

Who will become the first trillion-dollar company?

6/4 – Apple
5/2 – Exxon
3/1 – PetroChina
7/1 – Industrial & Commercial Bank of China
10/1 – Petrobras
12/1 – Facebook
20/1 – Any other

Will Facebook go public by the end of 2012?

1/2  Yes
6/4  No

Facebook value at IPO

14/1 – $75bn or less
6/4 – $76bn to $100bn
4/5 – $101bn to 125bn
5/1 – More than $125bn

Will you be placing any bets on Facebook?

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