The Electoral Calculus website suggests that the SNP could win all Scottish seats that it’s contesting, while similar alternatives project that Labour and the Liberal Democrats would save one seat apiece – the Liberal Democrats likely to win Orkney and Shetland. Currently, Nicola Sturgeon’s party has six seats.A survey on voter intention revealed that 54 per cent were backing the SNP – an increase of two points since January. It would mark a significant change from five years ago, when Labour took 41 of the available seats. Keiran Pedley, director at market researcher Gfk NOP, went so far as to call the prediction a “wipeout.”
Ipsos Mori poll has #SNP 34 points ahead of #Labour. Wipeout. I mean there is only so much a poll can overstate…#GE2015 — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) April 29, 2015The prediction comes from a survey of 1071 respondents aged over 18, conducted between April 22 and 27, asking how people would vote if there was a general election tomorrow. Labour was down four points to 20 per cent. Jim Murphy had told Buzzfeed a few months ago that he was surprised by how easy he had found tackling the SNP in the run-up to the election. “I’m just astonished by how quickly they’ve run out of ideas,” he said. Pedley though, also added that while the prediction was negative for Labour, a clean sweep would, “actually knock 12 seats off Conservatives/Liberal Democrats while keeping the Labour/SNP total the same”. Sturgeon recently told BBC Newsnight that the Conservatives had bullied Ed Miliband into rejecting SNP support. She added that the Labour leader, “should be a bit tougher about being kicked around so much by the Tories. He should be bolder in saying that he will respect the wishes of voters”. Following the poll announcement, Sturgeon tweeted that votes were all that would matter come 7 May.
Forget polls – only votes win elections. The more seats @theSNP win, the stronger Scotland will be. Let’s keep working hard. #GE15 #voteSNP — Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) April 29, 2015Meanwhile, the Conservatives increased their share up to 17 per cent, an increase of five points. The Liberal Democrats were up one point to five per cent, the Green Party down to two per cent and UKIP polled at one per cent. The poll also found that 80 per cent of the Scottish electorate were certain to vote – five points down on what was the turnout for the Scottish referendum in September 2014, but an increase from the 64 per cent who voted in the last election. By Rebecca Smith
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