Tech trends in 2012: what’s not?

Following on from his “what’s hot?” piece, serial investor and entrepreneur Jos White predicts the declining tech trends of 2012:

Not hot: Social media noise

With all the data coming through, there might be a backlash against social media, resulting in people being more selective about which platforms and what people they engage with.

Not hot: Physical media 

The rise of the iPad and Kindle, the Netflix launch in the UK and overall the movement of streaming, downloading and renting movies/content online will undoubtedly have a huge knock on effect on physical media sales – whether it’s CDs, DVDs, magazines, books or newspapers, consumers are starting to question the need to own any physical media. 

Not hot: RIM

RIM will continue to struggle in 2012 following the lack of new products that really capture the imagination. Plus, last year’s infrastructure issues couldn’t have come at a worse time. The Blackberry device now has only six per cent of the smartphone market, down from 23 per cent as recently as 2010, making them less and less appealing to app developers. RIM is therefore caught in a downward spiral that they will find it difficult to get out of. All this could leave the company with only two options – being acquired or becoming obsolete. RIM = RIP?

Not hot: Google / Motorola 

I’m confused by Google’s acquisition of Motorola, and think that the acquisition will continue to create more problems than it solves. There’s the challenge of integrating two completely different cultures and also of keeping their handset partners happy while they develop competitive products. Could this finally be some good news for Microsoft in driving handset makers into their arms?

Jos White is co-founder of Notion Capital and MessageLabs.

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