UK could become Europe’s top economy in 2030

It all seems to kick off when the UK overtakes France (just) having revised GDP figures to include earnings from drugs and prostitution.

“The French figures do not include these industries, which may well be larger than their British counterparts,” explains Cebr.

“Russia’s well known economic woes show it dropping to tenth place. The collapse in the Turkish Lira brings it down from 17th to 19th place. Korea moves up a place as do Italy (surprisingly but only because the Russian economy is in even worse trouble than the Italian econom!) India, the Netherlands, Belgium (who swap places with Norway) and Austria. Argentina drops three places as its economy collapses.”

In 2024 it is estimated that the Chinese revise their GDP figures. Due to this, China now overtakes the US to become become the world’s largest economy in 2025 rather than 2028 as was thought a year ago.

“India moves into a strong fourth place. Brazil moves into sixth position, splitting Germany and the UK.”

But it is only as globalisation “reaches its mature phase in 2030”, that the world’s league settles down to a new ordering, with China in first place and India in third.

Read more about what is to be expected in 2030:

It also shows the UK overtaking Germany for the first time since 1954. It is noted, however, that if Scotland breaks away, this will not happen until 2037.

“Of course, if Germany left the euro, its currency strength would mean that the UK, even if Scotland were not to leave, would be unlikely to overtake Germany until around 2050 by when the pressure of the UK’s superior demographics would prove irresistible,” the Cebr explains.

CEO Douglas McWilliams, said: “The fun of the world economic league table is that it brings things back to hard figures. Countries like Russia and Argentina, who have invaded neighbouring countries and whose leaders spout aggressively nationalistic rhetoric are brought down to earth by their falls in the league table as their economies collapse.

“The World Economic League table also shows the dramatic changes now taking place in the world’s economic geography with slow growing European economies falling back and Asian economies, even though their growth is slowing, catching up.

“The only European economy that rises consistently in this league table is Sweden, where the economy was revitalised by the previous government. There may be lessons here for other European economies.”

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